Fire season officially kicked off on April 1.
The province has seen over 50 reported wildfires already and the season has hardly started.
Wildland Fire Ecologist Robert Gray has been studying the science behind wildfires for years. He says when we look to predict upcoming fire seasons, drought is the top concern.
香蕉视频直播淧eople think they can look at snow pack, but there just isn香蕉视频直播檛 any good, strong correlation between snowpack and the eventual fire season香蕉视频直播� Most of the research is showing that drought has a big impact.香蕉视频直播�
Gray says the province saw a very dry late summer and fall last year.
香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 a concern, because the large fuels - the logs and the duff and stuff, is very dry still right now and if the snowpack comes off very quickly it doesn香蕉视频直播檛 have a chance to soak in. Those fuels are basically ready to burn early summer.香蕉视频直播�
On top of that, Gray says those fuels can be very difficult to extinguish if they catch on fire and typically eat up valuable provincial resources.
香蕉视频直播淔ires tend to eat up resources, and, of course, the more resources you eat up the next fire has fewer resources and it香蕉视频直播檚 a cascading affect.香蕉视频直播�
February through April have been relatively dry in B.C. as well and could fuel a nasty wildfire season, but predicting exactly how the summer will go is not easy.
香蕉视频直播淲e went from a very quiet 2020 to the heat dome in 2021 and a bad fire season. What we can predict is that every three or four or five years we香蕉视频直播檙e going to have a significant fire season, just because of increasing global temperatures, changes in weather patterns, increased drought, things like that. We might have a down year, or down two years, but we香蕉视频直播檙e rolling the dice and eventually we will have a bad fire season.香蕉视频直播�
Gray explained that 2023 could be setting up a challenging fire season for next year.
香蕉视频直播淭he el ninos that we香蕉视频直播檝e had have really driven global temperature. El ninas tend to cool things a little bit. What I香蕉视频直播檝e seen for some of the modelling work, long range modelling, that by next year 2024 we have a building el nino which will probably drive record global temperatures.香蕉视频直播�
READ MORE: Low rainfall may elevate drought, wildfire risks in B.C. this summer
Drought and high temperatures aren香蕉视频直播檛 the only cause for concern. Gray says a year with lots of precipitation allows more growth of fuels.
香蕉视频直播淲e did some prescribed burning in the East Kootenays last year in the springtime and it was moist up until we had that really significant drought in the year. We grew so much grass we could have burnt the same site in the fall.香蕉视频直播�
So what do we do if wildfire season is inevitable? Gray says the more prepared we are ahead of time the better.
香蕉视频直播淲e香蕉视频直播檝e done a lot of fuel treatment, we香蕉视频直播檝e educated people about not starting fires and protecting their homes and stuff, so that it really doesn香蕉视频直播檛 matter what kind of fire season we have because we are ready for it.香蕉视频直播�
According to Gray, the provinces needs to do more work on fire preparation and mitigation.
香蕉视频直播淚 would invest massively in prevention and mitigation,香蕉视频直播� Gray said in response to what he would do if taking over the fire service in B.C. 香蕉视频直播淲e spend an inordinate amount of money on response and recovery, and most of the international disaster agencies like the UN Disaster Program are basically telling governments 香蕉视频直播榶ou need to reverse the formula, you need to spend far more on prevention mitigation,香蕉视频直播� which basically is fuels work.香蕉视频直播�
Gray says the only way to reduce evacuations and impacts to the provincial budget as well as improve air quality is to invest heavily in mitigation work, something the province isn香蕉视频直播檛 doing.
香蕉视频直播淚t香蕉视频直播檚 the same with any other natural disturbance. Whether it香蕉视频直播檚 flooding or earthquakes, if you spend the money up front then when the disaster happens it doesn香蕉视频直播檛 cost you as much. Yet for some strange reason and for 25 years we香蕉视频直播檝e been debating this. We香蕉视频直播檙e not doing it with wildfires, and what香蕉视频直播檚 worse is there香蕉视频直播檚 some out there who are saying it香蕉视频直播檚 too big a problem so therefore there香蕉视频直播檚 no sense in spending the money on it.香蕉视频直播�
Predictions always suggest the places that dry out the fastest are at highest risk for a wildfire. 香蕉视频直播淭he Okanagan, the East Kootenays, the central plateau, Cariboo, Chilcotin - those are the places we tend to have a very long fire season that starts in April or May and if we don香蕉视频直播檛 get June rain then you香蕉视频直播檙e adding June to it. Those are places that it香蕉视频直播檚 about a six month fire season.
As of April 20, B.C. has 26 wildfires currently burning.
READ MORE: Criminal probe begins after campfire-sparked blaze threatened homes in Kamloops
brittany.webster@blackpress.ca
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